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| UFC 135 preview: Why is 'Rampage' such a huge underdog https://foru.mma-torrents.com/viewtopic.php?f=13&t=3743 |
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| Author: | Ligeia420 [ Fri Sep 23, 2011 6:52 pm ] |
| Post subject: | UFC 135 preview: Why is 'Rampage' such a huge underdog |
If you read into betting lines associated with UFC 135, the world has already decided that Jon Jones (13-1 MMA, 7-1 UFC) is unbeatable, or at least when it comes to Quinton "Rampage" Jackson (32-8 MMA, 7-2 UFC). No lines could more clearly indicate "puncher's chance" than odds that have Jackson as high as +400 to Jones' -600, which means that the former champion has about a 15 percent probability of winning the fight. UFC president calls those odds "crazy," but should he? Is Jones the future of the sport, and is Jackson the past? Hardcore fans may agree with Jackson in painting the current champ as cocky and fake, but those who put money on fights clearly aren't betting with their emotions when it comes to the main event of UFC 135, which takes place Saturday at Denver's Pepsi Center. The night's main card airs on pay-per-view after prelims on Facebook and Spike TV. It's Jones' first title defense and Jackson's first attempt to win back the belt he lost three years ago. Although he may not be a fan favorite, Jones' skills have been valued far above Jackson's. There's also some convenient MMA math at hand. Jones destroyed Mauricio "Shogun" Rua to take the belt, and Rua destroyed Jackson so many years ago in PRIDE. There's Jones' smashing performance over Matt Hamill – ruled a disqualification but considered by all to be a win – and Jackson's struggle to put the now-retired fighter away in his most recent appearance. The thinking is that Jackson has slowed and come to rely on one weapon, which is his striking. Jones, meanwhile, has darn near reinvented the game with all manner of spinning elbows, flying kicks, explosive takedowns and just about anything he decides to pull out of his hat. The thinking is also that the 33-year-old Jackson has too much wear and tear from too many fights, and besides, isn't he two years and one foot out the door close to retirement? Sure, he's a great puncher, as are all veterans until the day they hang up the gloves. But he's missing a lot more than he's hitting these days. Meanwhile, the 24-year-old Jones is hungrier, more passionate, and more committed to improving his skills. His recent tape looks a lot more impressive, that's for sure. Then there are the physical calculations implied in the odds. Jones has three inches in height on Jackson and a half-inch shy of a foot in reach. A foot, as in 12 inches. Jones could probably eat a sandwich on the one side of the octagon and still reach Jackson in the other. Jackson's puncher's chance is entirely predicated on the idea that he'll be able to wade through a minefield of jabs, front kicks and crosses to do damage inside, where Jones' power isn't as concentrated. Even if you're a diehard fan and a lifetime hater of Jones, it's a tall order by any stretch of the imagination. Jones has given us all the reason to think that his tools are more than enough to negate the three areas in which he has yet to be tested: his chin, his back, and his endurance. Nobody, though, has taken the champ down and held him there. Nobody has stuffed him against the cage for any length of time. And nobody has cracked him with a good solid punch. He's never been past the 15-minute mark. Jackson has the capability to give Jones firsts in all those areas. He has beaten two Olympic-level wrestlers, Dan Henderson and Matt Lindland. He's stopped 14 of his opponents with strikes and knocked several out cold. He's been the distance many times, and that includes two fights that went the full 25 minutes allotted to title bouts. If only he had given us a recent indication of these things. Make no mistake, though; Jackson is planning to show fans what they've forgotten. In particular, he plans to push Jones into the later rounds. "This kid never went five rounds, and I know that he gasses," Jackson said. "I've seen him gas when he fought 'Shogun,' and that was a rusty 'Shogun.' He's been talking a lot of smack, like he's going to be the first one to finish me in the UFC. So I just want to beef up my cardio. I want him to try and end me so he'll gas, and I'll make him look like a fool." Jones, of course, isn't planning on giving Jackson the opportunity to push him into later rounds, much less to catch his chin with a hard punch. "I have a fresh chin, and a fresh passion, and a fresh heart, and I think that's going to get me out of a lot of things," Jones said. "I have the passion to not want to get hit, let alone think about losing a fight. I don't even like to get hit. So I train my butt off, and that's why my chin is rarely tested in the octagon – because I focus on things like evading and slipping and countering." "And running," Jackson interrupted Wednesday during a pre-event press conference in support of Saturday's event. "And distance," Jones continued. "Quinton, I haven't disrespected you, have I?" "Not today," Jackson said. So the two don't particularly get along, either. How could they? Jackson has been forced to build a tolerance toward dismissals implied by the odds against him, to say nothing of "Spygate" or any other conflict that's brewed since the fight's announcement. He's the underdog, and Jones is basking in the glow of a champion many believe can't be touched. Jackson's got to prove himself all over again. But for those closest to him, few believe. Hughes' swan song? In the co-main event of the evening, former welterweight champion Matt Hughes (45-8 MMA, 18-6 UFC) takes on onetime welterweight title challenger Josh Koscheck (15-5 MMA, 13-5 UFC). It's Hughes' first fight since a stunning knockout loss at UFC 123 to former champ B.J. Penn, and Koscheck's first appearance since current welterweight champ Georges St-Pierre bested him on points at UFC 124 and fractured his orbital bone in the process. Diego Sanchez originally was scheduled to fight Hughes but was forced to withdraw just a few weeks ago. The 37-year-old Hughes is on the last fight of his contract and said he'll assess whether to continue fighting or call it quits following the fight, though he said his decision won't rest with the outcome. Koscheck, meanwhile, is delaying a trip to middleweight, where he planned to fight before taking the short-notice opportunity against Hughes. It's a perfect chance for Koscheck to build his resume, though Hughes is not particularly a gateway to the belt. Both have lost twice to St-Pierre. That further supports an exit for Hughes. Koscheck has been training for the past four or five months and said he's in shape for the fight. Hughes has been training since his knockout suspension was lifted, but he's been forced to tweak his gameplan with the withdrawal of Sanchez. The fight is not too different form its headliner in that Koscheck is the younger, fresher opponent facing a battle-hardened veteran. Having just been on the receiving end of a vicious knockout, Hughes may try to put Koscheck on his back after testing the waters in the standup realm. Koscheck is likely to sprawl and keep the fight on his feet where his looping power punches can find their target. Heavyweights, Diaz-Gomi on PPV bouts Also on the PPV main card, heavyweight Travis Browne (11-0-1 MMA, 2-0-1 UFC) looks to build on the momentum he picked up with a stunning knockout victory over Stefan Struve by wrecking Brit Rob Broughton (15-5-1 MMA, 1-0 UFC). Broughton is a training partner of Jackson's and a member of the Wolfslair MMA team. He hasn't fought since October 2010, when he submitted Vinicius Queiroz at UFC 120. Injuries kept him from a return at UFC 131 this past June. Browne, meanwhile, knocked out Struve this past May at UFC 130, so he'll have the advantage when it comes to freshness. Also, "The Ultimate Fighter 5" winner Nate Diaz (13-7 MMA, 8-5 UFC) meets former PRIDE lightweight champion Takanori Gomi (32-7 MMA, 1-2 UFC) in what could be a loser-leaves-town match. Diaz is on a two-fight slide and is returning to lightweight after an unsuccessful stint at welterweight. Gomi, too, has fought a losing battle to stay consistent. He is 1-2 in the UFC since signing with the promotion this past year and has all but dropped off the future contenders' list with losses to Kenny Florian and Clay Guida. Finally, heavyweight Ben Rothwell (31-7 MMA, 1-1 UFC) returns to the cage for the first time since June 2010 to meet Mark Hunt (6-7 MMA, 1-1 UFC). The former IFL champion most recently outpointed Gilbert Yvel for his first octagon win at UFC 115. Previously, he got railroaded by current UFC champ Cain Velasquez and has reportedly made severe changes to his diet and training regimen that he hopes will revitalize his career. Hunt, meanwhile, returns on the strength of a highlight-reel knockout of Chris Tuchscherer that reversed a disappointing submission loss to Sean McCorkle in his UFC debut. UFC 135's full card includes: MAIN CARD (Pay-per-view) Champ Jon Jones vs. Quinton "Rampage" Jackson (for light-heavyweight title) Matt Hughes vs. Josh Koscheck Rob Broughton vs. Travis Browne Nate Diaz vs. Takanori Gomi Mark Hunt vs. Ben Rothwell PRELIMINARY CARD (Spike TV) Aaron Riley vs. Tony Ferguson Tim Boetsch vs. Nick Ring PRELIMINARY CARD (Facebook) Ricardo Romero vs. James Te Huna Cole Escovedo vs. Takeya Mizugaki Junior Assuncao vs. Eddie Yagin Source - MMAJunkie |
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